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November 27, 2017

Trading Josh Donaldson Is No Easy Feat

I have been a vocal supporter of the Toronto Blue Jays trading former league MVP Josh Donaldson, I will not deny that.

Over the past month I have been going through scenario after scenario, team after team, trying to find a mix of talent to make the trade. I have also looked at the course and trajectory of the team acquiring him, and need at position. I have come to the conclusion that a functional trade for both sides may not exist.

Any team that acquires Donaldson would be getting a dynamic, All-Star caliber player who is capable of leading a team on a postseason run. The almost 32-year-old Donaldson, was a late-bloomer who never received a legitimate shot at the big leagues until age 27, so he doesn’t have the same wear-and-tear that many his age would have. He has had some injury issues this season for the first time in his career, but despite missing nearly 40 games, he’s still on pace to put up a WAR of over 4.

The issues become stacked against a deal when you factor in position, and the fact that he would be going to a contending team. Let’s run down a few teams that would fit the profile for a Donaldson deal and who they currently have at 3rd:

Angels: Luis Valbuena

Astros: Alex Bregman

Brewers: Travis Shaw

Cardinals: Matt Carpenter

Cubs: Kris Bryant

DBacks: Jake Lamb

Dodgers: Justin Turner

Indians: Jose Ramirez/Yandy Diaz/Giovanny Urshela

Mariners: Kyle Seager

Nationals: Anthony Rendon

Orioles: Manny Machado

Rangers: Adrian Beltre/Joey Gallo

Red Sox: Rafael Devers

Rockies: Nolan Arenado

Yankees: Todd Frazier/Ronald Torreyes/Chase Headley

From that list, how many are suitable, just in terms of basic need? Angels, Indians, Yankees, and maybe with positional switches in house, the Brewers and Cardinals. Quickly, we are down to 5 teams. The next factor is that a player like Donaldson would bring back a prospect and young MLB talent. So let’s go team-by-team and break down the best young trade assets that fit the Toronto Blue Jays needs/wants:

Angels: With potentially the worst Minor League system in all of baseball, the likelihood the Angels would be able to put together a package of young talent for Donaldson would be nearly impossible. Their top MiLB talent consists of OF Jo Adell (Rookie), and OF Jahmai Jones (A/A+). Beyond that, their system is more-or-less fodder. At the Major league level, Garrett Richards could be intriguing, but he is 29 and coming off of a major Injury. Andrew Heaney, Tyler Skaggs, and Parker Bridwell, a trio of 26 year olds. all have substantial warts. Let’s rule out the Angels all together.

Indians: Cleveland has the potential to be a very interesting trade partner. Between Toronto’s front office ties to that organization, the depth of young talent in their system, and a need at 3rd, they appear to be a fit. Their top MiLB talent are C Francisco Mejia (#14 overall, AA), RHP Triston McKenzie (#21 overall, A+) and 1B Bobby Bradley (AA). Three very interesting pieces, all of which could be very close to being big league ready. Mejia and McKenzie both have All-Star potential. At the big league level, they have a few interesting pieces as well, in RHP Danny Salazar, RHP Mike Clevinger, OF Greg Allen, and LHP Ryan Merritt, whom I’m sure Blue Jays fans remember.The difficulty becomes, is it truly a position of need for the Indians when Jason Kipnis comes back and Ramirez slides to 3rd? Would Kipnis be a piece in a potential trade? Lots of questions, but surely the Indians fit as a destination.

Yankees: The New York Yankees have wonderful system, and a contending team on the field as well. They have a great mix of young and mature talent and the threat of impending Donaldson free-agency wouldn’t scare them off at all. Torreyes, Frazier and  Headley are fine, but hardly deal breakers at the position, so the fit seems solid. They’re  a divisional rival, which would bother some, but not me, personally.  Their Top MiLB talent includes super-prospect INF Gleyber Torres (#2 overall, AAA), OF Clint Frazier (#24 overall, AAA/MLB), RHP Chance Adams (#57 overall, AAA), OF Estevan Florial (#84 overall, A+), LHP Justus Sheffield (#86 overall, AA), 3B Miguel Andujar (#98 overall, AAA), flame-throwing RHP Domingo Acevado (AA/AAA), as well as numerous other high talent, Low-Minor league guys. They also don’t lack interesting pieces at the big league level with 1B Greg Bird, UTL Tyler Wade, and LHP Jordan Montgomery. The Yankees are primed to make a deal for a player like Josh Donaldson. The question is, are the Blue Jays willing to trade him within the division?

Cardinals: The Cardinals were rumored, mid-season, to have had preliminary conversations about Josh Donaldson. They have a need for a dynamic bat and they have some very interesting pieces, but many of those pieces have significant question marks. Are Randall Grichuk and Kolten Wong everyday players at the MLB Level? Can Michael Wacha become a front-end starter, or is he destined to become a late-game stopper? Would they be willing to deal “catcher-of-the-future” Carson Kelly, with Yadier Molina on the roster? Do they have the pitching depth to include talented arms like Luke Weaver, Jack Flaherty, or the exceptional but damaged Alex Reyes? Seems like a lot of question marks on a possible deal. Beyond those named already, the Cardinals do have some interesting MiLB talent in OF Tyler O’neil (#94 Overall, AAA), OF Harrison Bader (#96 overall, AAA/MLB), and OF Magneuris Sierra (AA/MLB). Unless they were willing to put together a huge pitching deal, including the likes of Weaver, Flaherty and one of the OF prospects, it’s hard to see the deal getting done. The Cards giving up those players would probably decimate their chances of contending, from a pitching stand-point.

Brewers: Travis Shaw has had an amazing year, no question, but a deal for Josh Donaldson won’t be stopped by making someone shift positions to acquire him. The Brewers also have a nice system and some intriguing MLB talent that could be tradeable, possibly Shaw or Thames included in that intrigue. With Donaldson on the verge of free-agency however, my thought would be that the Brewers wouldn’t want to get into the rental game, for the amount of capital a deal would cost them. Their top MiLB talent includes OF Lewis Brinson (#13 overall, AAA/MLB), OF Corey Ray (#63 overall, A+), RHP Luis Ortiz (#75 overall, AA), RHP Brandon Woodruff (#87 overall, AAA/MLB), DH/2B Keston Hiura (#88 overall, A), INF Isan Diaz (#92 overall, A+) and RHP Corbin Burnes (AA). That’s a lot of potential talent that fits the Blue Jays organizational needs. The Brewers and Yankees are the 2 teams that can put together a large enticing package without gutting the team’s future. But will the money game around Donaldson scare them off as a suitor?

Based off of every factor I can see, the only teams that make sense for a Josh Donaldson trade, for both sides, appear to be the New York Yankees or the Cleveland Indians. The question is, what potential issues do Blue Jays management have with dealing a star-player to these two teams in particular? Only time will tell, but unfortunately, it seems the Blue Jays don’t have as many potential avenues as many fans and media seem to think.

About Marc Nolan:

 

Marc Nolan is a Blogger, Public Speaker, and Entrepreneur originally from Campbell River, BC. Marc currently resides in Port Hope, ON with his Wife and two sons. He has always been involved in sports. A former College Baseball player, current coach and founder of the Northumberland Baseball Academy, Marc has invested his entire life to the game he loves. He has now been able to transition that passion into public speaking and journalism.

Despite the fact he has no formal training in the field, Marc has found ways to get exposure in the industry through hard work and dedication to what he loves. Currently, he operates a personal Blog (www.WestysWorld.com), writes for the LastWordOnBaseball. Hopefully, in the near future, will be starting his own personal Minor League Baseball Podcast. He is very active on Social Media. You can reach Marc with any questions, on Twitter, @MarcWestyNolan

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